Brasil situation is much more complex than exposed on any side, including by the otherwise ever excellent Pepe Escobar. He's been away too long.
https://www.unz.com/pescobar/comeback-kid-lula-in-the-eye-of-a-volcano/
The Left/Right labelling is clearly unproductive.
Relevant distinction is I believe today much more global & financialized vs National & Physical (For Real, not facebook and not 9,00 USD starbucks coffee).
From 2004, Lula surfed a commodity-boom & exploited it well. It was a period of considerable economic expansion, *REAL* industrial expansion with a *REAL* redistribution effort which very much contributed to the development of the north east.
Lula promoted the creation of "national champions": Odebrecht, Eike Batista, Petrobras, JBS and others - totally in line and amplifying/succeeding the politics promoted by the military regime 1964-1989.
This lead to very successful developments in Engineering (Civil, Marine, Oil), which was spectacular & real - but mired in a likewise spectacular sea of corruption.
A US led operation, through the Brazilian judiciary, shot the whole system down - the "Lava-Jato" operation, after the end of Lula's 2nd mandate ending 12/2011, under calamitous Dilma.
Petrol naval construction shut down, Eike Batista petrol & mineral operations shut down, Odebrecht's mega-engineering operation closed. Disaster, beast culled.
USA put the country back in the ranks. Dilma impeached, Lula jailed by Lava-jato US collaborators.
Bolso elected, on a "100% US fan", "100% trumpist" program.
Except Bolso is a nationalist "desenvolvimentista" "industrialista": pro-development & industrialization, and a wild card. Uncontrolable. Especially after rump's demise - not a typo, I won't hide my contempt for the fat useless bastard POS.
Development & industrialization is a very very strong drive here. It is also *my* drive, that's what I work in/for. More cows, more fields, more milk processing, more machines, more factories.
The adversary is the federal & state parasites trying to tax & regulate = suck $$$. Bolso was very good against these adversaries, reduced the "mamata" (tit sucking parasites).
Bolso's incoherence & incompetence, effectively lead to a neutralization of the federal state - perfect. Works with Putin & China, full-in on Eurasian integration - perfect.
Same commodity boom now, 2 years industry booming here, can't find enough workforce, extending work hours.
To Pepe I say: The chap is bad, and that's good. We don't want a super efficient führer, we want a very poorly efficient one. He basically neutralizes the federal nuisance.
Lula is miraculously freed from jail, "bleached", & re-appears as a BR judicial system/WEF/CNN/Biden approved candidate elected after "free, fair, and credible" elections 49,1%/50,9%. With lots of strange local deviations.
I believe Lula has made a deal. Faust, anyone? But he a wily, efficient, crooked, operator who used to be able to elaborate /escape any plot. Also uncontrolable.
Basically, geopolitically & economically - Lula & Bolso are the same. Lula comes with a much heavier state-parasitism cost. And may be compromised: Covid is BS and he has to lick it, climate change is BS and he has to lick it. We need more cows & refining capacity.
Note: Bolso is not at all exempt of corruption, but "artisanal" level - millions versus billions.
In all logic, elected Lula dies fast & is replaced by "picole de chuchu" (= zero calory cucumber sherbet = tasteless, spineless) vice president, a total meritless tool with no autonomy whatsoever.
No idea how current pseudo-insurrectional situation will evolve.
Most likely situation dies out, unless someone has any kind of magic card proving the fraud in the voting machine system.
And Lula takes office & dies - but whole society from agro-industrial bottom to top is awake.
Lula's daughter made one of my favourite documentaries, 'The Edge of Democracy' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLe24M_PB5E